Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 44,184
2 South Dakota 38,949
3 Louisiana 38,670
4 Mississippi 37,404
5 Alabama 35,594
6 Florida 35,403
7 Iowa 34,614
8 Tennessee 33,648
9 Arkansas 33,282
10 Wisconsin 32,271
11 South Carolina 32,142
12 Arizona 32,002
13 Georgia 30,906
14 Idaho 30,862
15 Nebraska 30,711
16 Texas 30,329
17 Utah 30,144
18 Nevada 29,764
19 Illinois 28,105
20 Oklahoma 27,684
21 Rhode Island 27,043
22 Missouri 26,866
23 Kansas 25,703
24 New York 25,250
25 New Jersey 25,216
26 Delaware 23,953
27 North Carolina 23,756
28 District of Columbia 23,301
29 Indiana 22,739
30 Maryland 22,698
31 Montana 22,643
32 California 22,451
33 Minnesota 22,268
34 Massachusetts 21,104
35 Kentucky 20,532
36 Virginia 19,653
37 Puerto Rico 18,362
38 Connecticut 18,078
39 New Mexico 18,073
40 Alaska 16,880
41 Michigan 16,616
42 Wyoming 16,459
43 Ohio 15,881
44 Colorado 15,275
45 Pennsylvania 14,840
46 Washington 13,637
47 West Virginia 11,449
48 Hawaii 10,101
49 Oregon 9,519
50 New Hampshire 7,228
51 Maine 4,455
52 Vermont 3,134

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,051
2 Wisconsin 701
3 South Dakota 695
4 Montana 597
5 Idaho 479
6 Wyoming 408
7 Nebraska 357
8 Tennessee 350
9 Utah 347
10 Rhode Island 301
11 Illinois 298
12 Alaska 291
13 Iowa 265
14 Minnesota 262
15 Kansas 259
16 Oklahoma 256
17 New Mexico 246
18 Indiana 232
19 Missouri 230
20 Arkansas 223
21 Michigan 223
22 Kentucky 216
23 Puerto Rico 208
24 Nevada 198
25 Alabama 194
26 Colorado 183
27 Texas 182
28 North Carolina 163
29 Ohio 154
30 Connecticut 151
31 Mississippi 147
32 South Carolina 147
33 Louisiana 146
34 West Virginia 133
35 Delaware 131
36 New Jersey 129
37 Florida 122
38 Massachusetts 122
39 Arizona 115
40 Pennsylvania 112
41 Georgia 105
42 Virginia 98
43 Maryland 97
44 California 91
45 Washington 78
46 Oregon 65
47 New York 61
48 District of Columbia 52
49 New Hampshire 49
50 Hawaii 47
51 Maine 18
52 Vermont 16

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,826
2 New York 1,696
3 Massachusetts 1,415
4 Connecticut 1,278
5 Louisiana 1,241
6 Rhode Island 1,098
7 Mississippi 1,075
8 District of Columbia 909
9 Arizona 801
10 Illinois 754
11 Florida 749
12 Michigan 739
13 South Carolina 717
14 Georgia 705
15 Delaware 685
16 Pennsylvania 671
17 Maryland 669
18 Texas 608
19 Indiana 595
20 Alabama 572
21 Arkansas 572
22 Nevada 561
23 North Dakota 547
24 Iowa 499
25 New Mexico 449
26 Missouri 434
27 Ohio 434
28 California 431
29 Tennessee 428
30 Virginia 408
31 Minnesota 407
32 Colorado 384
33 North Carolina 383
34 South Dakota 373
35 New Hampshire 344
36 Kentucky 314
37 Washington 312
38 Kansas 309
39 Idaho 302
40 Oklahoma 300
41 Nebraska 297
42 Wisconsin 285
43 Puerto Rico 240
44 Montana 235
45 West Virginia 227
46 Utah 172
47 Oregon 150
48 Hawaii 132
49 Maine 108
50 Wyoming 105
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 86

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Iowa 5
2 North Dakota 5
3 South Dakota 5
4 Arkansas 4
5 Indiana 4
6 Kansas 4
7 Wisconsin 4
8 Louisiana 3
9 Mississippi 3
10 Montana 3
11 Nebraska 3
12 Rhode Island 3
13 South Carolina 3
14 Florida 2
15 Georgia 2
16 Illinois 2
17 Kentucky 2
18 Michigan 2
19 Nevada 2
20 New Mexico 2
21 North Carolina 2
22 Tennessee 2
23 Virginia 2
24 Wyoming 2
25 Alabama 1
26 Connecticut 1
27 Delaware 1
28 Idaho 1
29 Massachusetts 1
30 Minnesota 1
31 Missouri 1
32 Oklahoma 1
33 Oregon 1
34 Pennsylvania 1
35 Texas 1
36 Utah 1
37 Washington 1
38 West Virginia 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Arizona 0
41 California 0
42 Colorado 0
43 District of Columbia 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Maine 0
46 Maryland 0
47 New Hampshire 0
48 New Jersey 0
49 New York 0
50 Ohio 0
51 Puerto Rico 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 170,608 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 158,430 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 154,466 3 99
Lafayette Florida 149,964 4 99
Lake Tennessee 138,255 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 46,388 254 91
Richland South Carolina 40,237 396 87
York South Carolina 22,439 1430 54
Orange California 18,632 1757 44
Pierce Washington 11,566 2440 22

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,203 1 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,051 2 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 633 800 74
Davidson Tennessee 470 1141 63
Orange California 445 1192 62
York South Carolina 342 1487 52
Pierce Washington 267 1724 45

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons